No Loans, No Homes
Posted on 31 May 2011 at 4:13pm
Can you imagine! Only 529,000 housing starts year-over-year. Yes, we have a housing over-supply at the moment. But caused by financial strata... not demographic realities... (show all)
Can you imagine! Only 529,000 housing starts year-over-year. Yes, we have a housing over-supply at the moment. But caused by financial strata... not demographic realities! If these housing start numbers persist the average household size in the United States will start to rise. Why? Because there will not be enough homes. People will have no choice but to find alternate means of housing as rents increase exponentially and home loans start following the old Japanese mortgage model: 20% cash down and a five year mortgage. Let's home it doesn't get to that!
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Pending Home Sales Decrease
Posted on 27 May 2011 at 10:52am
Home buyers are scarce. To quote: "The prospect that foreclosures will continue to drive down property values may keep buyers on the sidelines awaiting further price decli... (show all)
Home buyers are scarce. To quote: "The prospect that foreclosures will continue to drive down property values may keep buyers on the sidelines awaiting further price declines. Unemployment at 9 percent and stricter credit requirements are further signs that a housing recovery may take years to unfold." My view is that this is yet another data point that the home ownership rate will decrease and the renter population is expanding.
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Foreclosures Cresting, Renters Staying Put
Posted on 26 May 2011 at 6:37pm
In an interview with Kathleen Hayes today the President of Realty Trac commented that there are approximately 3,000,000 foreclosures still in the system. While this is a h... (show all)
In an interview with Kathleen Hayes today the President of Realty Trac commented that there are approximately 3,000,000 foreclosures still in the system. While this is a huge number, he does not believe it will rise beyond this point as banks and other financial institutions seem poised to release their remaining REO inventory sooner rather than later. He also noted that in a survey 40% of renters stated they had no interest in home ownership. Now that's a Big number!
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NY Office Space Expanding
Posted on 23 May 2011 at 9:19am
New York has the most office space in the United States. It is a world-class city, however, per the attached article, more than half of all buildings in the city are more t... (show all)
New York has the most office space in the United States. It is a world-class city, however, per the attached article, more than half of all buildings in the city are more than 50 years old. So what happens to these older office properties when competition from new construction heats up? In many instances they will be converter to other uses... like residential housing. Never under-estimate the ability of a big city to re-invent it's inventory.
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Tighter Lender, Fewer Home Sales
Posted on 19 May 2011 at 1:49pm
The attached link is all about home sales in and around Washington DC. I thought the most striking data point related to expectations that foreclosures this year will exce... (show all)
The attached link is all about home sales in and around Washington DC. I thought the most striking data point related to expectations that foreclosures this year will exceed those from 2010. That tells me the market still has more than a year before inventory begins to "clear" the system. The length of that horizon is the time necessary for home prices to begin stabilzation.
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If Thinking of Buying a Home, Buy now
Posted on 18 May 2011 at 11:59am
In the attached article the writer provides reasons for considering purchasing a home in winter 2011. The timing is even better now. Prices have dipped in residential a l... (show all)
In the attached article the writer provides reasons for considering purchasing a home in winter 2011. The timing is even better now. Prices have dipped in residential a little more since Q4 2010. As long as your intentions are to own, live and make a life in the house you buy its a good idea to buy now. Stay away from the idea of flipping or quick turns. The road to recovery in housing is still several years away.
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IMF Predicts 4% World GDP
Posted on 13 May 2011 at 7:13am
From Bloomberg: The International Monetary Fund predicts growth in the world economy will accelerate to 4.5 percent in 2012 from 4.4 percent this year. While advanced econo... (show all)
From Bloomberg: The International Monetary Fund predicts growth in the world economy will accelerate to 4.5 percent in 2012 from 4.4 percent this year. While advanced economies will expand 2.4 percent this year, developing nations will grow 6.5 percent, driven by expansions in China and India, the IMF predicts. Reporters: Stephen Treloar and Josiane Kremer.
Any U.S. number approaching 3% will reflect positive job growth. Positive job growth means continued economic expansion. Granted, perhaps not at the pace the Federal Reserve would like, but positive all the same.
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Zillow Says 28% of all Homeowners are Underwater
Posted on 9 May 2011 at 11:38pm
More than 28 percent of U.S. homeowners owed more than their properties were worth in the first quarter as values fell the most since 2008, Zillow Inc. said today.
See li... (show all)
More than 28 percent of U.S. homeowners owed more than their properties were worth in the first quarter as values fell the most since 2008, Zillow Inc. said today.
See link....
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Job Growth Momentum & Interest Rates
Posted on 6 May 2011 at 12:34pm
The U.S. has had three months now with job creation above 200,000 each month. Although the unemployment rate is remaining steady, the jobs report is a great trend line. A... (show all)
The U.S. has had three months now with job creation above 200,000 each month. Although the unemployment rate is remaining steady, the jobs report is a great trend line. Anticipate acceleration even from this point. Really. I expect six more months of the same with interest rates holding close to current levels during that time.
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Phoenix Under Water When it Comes to Mortgages
Posted on 4 May 2011 at 4:55pm
Phoenix is one city in the United States. A good size city with hard working people, businesses and good schools. It also is paying the price for the most recent real est... (show all)
Phoenix is one city in the United States. A good size city with hard working people, businesses and good schools. It also is paying the price for the most recent real estate price bubbles in terms of current valuations. A significant number of homes have a current value less than the amount of the mortgage owed. Yes this is bad. But take care to note that this is localized in many instances. Per Professor Wheaton of MIT; more than 50% of all foreclosures are in California, Arizona, Nevada and Florida. That leaves a lot of country where market rate transactions are occurring.
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